According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in January 2025 is expected to increase significantly by approximately 25.08% MoM compared to December 2024. In December, production sharply pulled back to a low point after two consecutive months of decline in September and October, making this month's production rebound reasonable. From the perspective of producers' operations, as the Chinese New Year approaches, many producers began equipment maintenance at month-end. Additionally, raw material supply has gradually eased, and producers have shown increased enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials before the Chinese New Year to prepare for post-holiday production. Some producers are expediting production before the holiday to ensure post-holiday supply, leading to increased production for some, while a few producers experienced slight declines. As a result, market participants generally consider the significant rebound in January's production to be within expectations. Detailed data from SMM's survey of 24 producers show that production increased significantly for five producers in January, with one producer achieving substantial growth. Meanwhile, production declined for four producers. This led to a significant MoM increase in overall bismuth ingot production in January. Consequently, many market participants anticipate that, with the Chinese New Year holiday starting in early February, China's refined bismuth production in February 2025 is likely to slightly pull back or remain stable.
Explanation: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessment of China's refined bismuth production. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the survey includes 24 producers across eight provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.
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